http://www.ssrc.org/blogs/darfur/2007/07/11/is-it-worth-trying-a-no-fly-zone/ Tue, 02 Dec 2008 19:25:34 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 http://www.ssrc.org/blogs/darfur/2007/07/11/is-it-worth-trying-a-no-fly-zone/#comment-47 Thomas O'Brien Thu, 19 Jul 2007 14:56:59 +0000 http://www.ssrc.org/blog/2007/07/11/is-it-worth-trying-a-no-fly-zone/#comment-47 Psychology research suggests that punishment can both increase and decrease aggression (Bower & Hilgard, 1981; cited in Franzoi, 2006). The research suggests that punishment can only be effective if it is administered reliably prompt following the aggressive act in a way that is moderately strong. Even with these three conditions met, punishment may actually increase aggression. Of course, aggression research based on individuals in a laboratory cannot be counted valid for predicting future aggression from a government. However, if sanctions prohibit more than flying military aircraft-if sanctions hinder trade and/or humanitarian aide, the civilians hurt by the sanctions will see them as punishment on them for government and janjiweed aggression. Two possible results: 1) increased resentment from the Sudanese people towards the international community and support for the Khartoum regime 2) The Fostering of a sense of victimization against those hurt by the sanctions and increased feeling of solidarity with the targets of the sanctions (the Sudanese government). Those hurt by the sanctions will join the in-group of the Bashir regime. Those whom the in-group perceives as responsible, the UN (and probably especially the US) will constitute the vile out-group. While himself living a life of luxury, Saddam Hussein manipulated oil sanctions to project an image of victimization by the West. Bashir will try the same. He will exaggerate the sanctions' effects for his benefit, making things even worse on victims of the sanctions in order to attract support for himself and demonize the United Nations and the United States. Psychology research suggests that punishment can both increase and decrease aggression (Bower & Hilgard, 1981; cited in Franzoi, 2006). The research suggests that punishment can only be effective if it is administered reliably prompt following the aggressive act in a way that is moderately strong. Even with these three conditions met, punishment may actually increase aggression.
Of course, aggression research based on individuals in a laboratory cannot be counted valid for predicting future aggression from a government. However, if sanctions prohibit more than flying military aircraft-if sanctions hinder trade and/or humanitarian aide, the civilians hurt by the sanctions will see them as punishment on them for government and janjiweed aggression. Two possible results: 1) increased resentment from the Sudanese people towards the international community and support for the Khartoum regime 2) The Fostering of a sense of victimization against those hurt by the sanctions and increased feeling of solidarity with the targets of the sanctions (the Sudanese government). Those hurt by the sanctions will join the in-group of the Bashir regime. Those whom the in-group perceives as responsible, the UN (and probably especially the US) will constitute the vile out-group.
While himself living a life of luxury, Saddam Hussein manipulated oil sanctions to project an image of victimization by the West. Bashir will try the same. He will exaggerate the sanctions’ effects for his benefit, making things even worse on victims of the sanctions in order to attract support for himself and demonize the United Nations and the United States.

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