http://www.ssrc.org/blogs/darfur/2008/03/26/whither-the-darfur-mediation-i/ Tue, 02 Dec 2008 20:33:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 http://www.ssrc.org/blogs/darfur/2008/03/26/whither-the-darfur-mediation-i/#comment-1571 P. Parriaux Thu, 27 Mar 2008 00:12:34 +0000 http://www.ssrc.org/blog/2008/03/26/whither-the-darfur-mediation-i/#comment-1571 I cannot agree on the statement that the government of Sudan has some grievance in this conflict. They do have a rational plan (which they are not always able to advance with the intervention of various groups). If we remember the long peace process leading to a "peace agreement" with the South, the government first has no interest in ending the conflict until 2009. According to a discussion with some Southern Sudanese, they plight in the South is not much better today than during the conflict except that they are keeping quiet until their moment come. During the previous peace process, the government has succeeded in uprooting most of the Dinkas and transformed them into slaves (with the contribution of NGOs which had no clues about the clan issues at stakes at that time, hopefully they learned their lesson for Darfur (see Mark Duffield). Beyond the GOS, peace effort should take into consideration the regional context and conflict. Finally, the break down of opposition or rebel groups is reinforcing the difficulties of reaching an "acceptable" solution. While these groups are in the phase of construction, they will not have interest in ending the conflict now until they have a chance to go against the government and find that they do have gain enough "terrain" to consider serious discussions. Regarding the land issue, first most of the work has been done in parking people in IDPs camp and one should remember how the efforts to provide some land to the Dinkas in the mid 1990s did not reach the results expected, but rather reinforced their vulnerability. As long as the government of Sudan is protected by China and other institutions like the CIA it will not have any interest and any interesting gain. I cannot agree on the statement that the government of Sudan has some grievance in this conflict. They do have a rational plan (which they are not always able to advance with the intervention of various groups). If we remember the long peace process leading to a “peace agreement” with the South, the government first has no interest in ending the conflict until 2009. According to a discussion with some Southern Sudanese, they plight in the South is not much better today than during the conflict except that they are keeping quiet until their moment come.
During the previous peace process, the government has succeeded in uprooting most of the Dinkas and transformed them into slaves (with the contribution of NGOs which had no clues about the clan issues at stakes at that time, hopefully they learned their lesson for Darfur (see Mark Duffield).
Beyond the GOS, peace effort should take into consideration the regional context and conflict. Finally, the break down of opposition or rebel groups is reinforcing the difficulties of reaching an “acceptable” solution. While these groups are in the phase of construction, they will not have interest in ending the conflict now until they have a chance to go against the government and find that they do have gain enough “terrain” to consider serious discussions.
Regarding the land issue, first most of the work has been done in parking people in IDPs camp and one should remember how the efforts to provide some land to the Dinkas in the mid 1990s did not reach the results expected, but rather reinforced their vulnerability.
As long as the government of Sudan is protected by China and other institutions like the CIA it will not have any interest and any interesting gain.

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