JEM’s decision to attack Khartoum, was not just badly planned, JEM obviously overestimated the amount of support it will receive from its ‘fifth column’ in the city and did not take into account the consequences of its actions on the everyday Darfurians and other Sudanese in the capital. The mass arrests of Zaghawa which Human Rights Watch has published and Ms. Flint alluded to, are the immediate consequence. More alarming would be the mounting distrust among other Northerners - Omdurmanians among others - who NOW feel personally threatened by the ‘Zaghawa’ uprising, which targeted their homes. Fighting always went to Khartoum, and has not in recent times touched Omdurman the oldest part of the city that has hosted everyone and anyone. What JEM did will play right into the Government’s hands who I suppose will now whip the public opinion in Sudan into a frenzy against JEM and the Zaghawa. There are many negative stereotypes about Zaghawas in particular within Northern Sudanese society, these will only feed into the angry sentiments on the streets today.

JEM’s attack has placed the SPLM in a precarious situation, while attempting to broker unity among the movements and trying to bridge the gap between the Darfur movements and the NCP, this attack on Khartoum has clearly thrust the SPLM back full throttle towards the strategic partnership between the NCP and SPLM, of which the CPA and Khartoum are pillars remains untouchable (showing the naive who had assumed otherwise ). If the Darfur movements continue such escapades they could lose a valuable ally the SPLM, who despite their covert antics with the movements, understand that their partnership with the NCP on the security of Khartoum remains in the current context sacrosanct.

The implications in terms of the international community’s role and position. Pressuring the government into a political negotiation is now more difficult than ever. This most recent attack will be milked by the government for all it’s worth to garner more international community support, and the fate of Chad remains in the realm of the unknown, if it wasn’t for the French support we might have seen an outright act of aggression from Sudan. I believe that Khartoum will retaliate, through increased support to the Chadian opposition groups.

I conclude with some thoughts on the international community role again… UNAMID or UNMIS, Adada or Salim or Eliasson or Qazi? Who take the lead? A crisis in Khartoum but of obvious Darfurian proportions, which mission? And the peace envoys! My message to the international community is: we as the Sudanese have always understood that the joke is on us… Thank you for being part of the problem!