Many argued during the Kosovo War that an indictment of Milosevic by the ICTY would reduce the incentives of the then Serb president to agree to a ceasefire and settlement of the crisis. Although this rationale seems to be logic at first sight, it underestimates the effect of “international stigmatization” that might well apply to Sudan, too. Once indicted by Carla del Ponte, Milosevic increasingly lost the support of the Russian government. Moscow did not wanted to give the impression as being hand in glove with an indicted war criminal. The faltering support of his most important protégé in the international system eventually undercut his domestic backing inside the regime and military. Becoming increasingly isolated and stigmatized, he finally gave in to a ceasefire. Although this is not to say that the indictment of the ICTY was the only reason for his choice to leave Kosovo, it certainly seems to have contributed to this result.

As we know, the Sudanese central government is also heavily relying on its international supporters in Moscow and Beijing. Indicting Bashir could reasonably lead to the same result as in Kosovo: Stigmatizing the regime internationally, undercutting its basis internally, and finally enhancing its proneness to engage in serious efforts to find a peaceful solution to the crisis in Darfur.

Robert Schuetter is president of the German NGO “Genocide Alert”, which advocates for a more proactive stance of Germany and the EU on Sudan, and is currently participating in the “Justice for Darfur” Coalition.