The Social Science Research Council’s (SSRC) African Peacebuilding Network and Next Generation Social Sciences in Africa (APN and Next Gen) program, in collaboration with the Institute for Peace and Security Studies (IPSS) of Addis Ababa University, co-hosted a high-level policy dialogue titled “Challenges to Political Transitions and Strategies for Regional Peace and Stability in the Horn of Africa,” held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia from June 27–28, 2025.

The dialogue convened senior policymakers, African Union (AU) and Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) representatives, including H.E. Amb. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, civil society actors, scholars (including SSRC’s APN and Next Gen fellows), and diplomats for timely discussions on political transitions, governance, peace, and regional cooperation in the Horn of Africa, including Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda.

The convening commenced with opening remarks from the APN and Next Gen Program Director, Dr. Cyril Obi, and Addis Ababa University’s Interim Head of the Center for Peace and Security Studies, Dr. Fana Gebresenbet, urging scholars and participants to approach the challenges facing the region through collaboration aimed at producing research-driven policy options.

H.E. Ambassador Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas (AU High Representative for Silencing the Guns) delivered a keynote address exploring the political challenges in the Horn of Africa and their similarities to the broader continent. H.E. Chambas spotlighted Sudan’s political unraveling—driven by militarization, exclusionary governance, and identity-based fractures—as emblematic of the broader instability in the Horn of Africa. He emphasized that these issues are not unique to Sudan but are reflected across the region, including Eritrea, where militarized politics and external influences remain key destabilizing forces. He urged participants to think through and adopt African-led, inclusive approaches that prioritize learning from past experiences, empowering civilian institutions, and addressing emerging challenges through initiatives like Silencing the Guns.

Discussion themes and outcomes

1. Political Transitions, Identity, and Governance Deficits
   Speakers explored the persistence of authoritarianism, elite capture of political processes, and structural marginalization. Discussions emphasized that identity politics continue to fuel ethno-regional tensions across Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, and Ethiopia. Participants argued that transitions should be viewed as ongoing movements rather than single events, and underscored the need for inclusive, civilian-led democratic institutions.
2. Regional and Transnational Drivers of Conflict
   Panelists noted that many conflicts in the Horn of Africa are interlinked, with insurgent movements and governance failures crossing borders. Examples from Somalia, South Sudan, and Eritrea illustrated how militarization and historically colonial-era frameworks deepened instability. Several speakers warned of the complicity of external actors and called for coordinated regional frameworks to manage transnational influences.
3. Community-Level Reconciliation and the Role of Grassroots Actors
   Local leaders, traditional authorities, and women play critical but under-supported roles in peacebuilding. Participants highlighted the need to embed grassroots actors in decision-making, not just implementation. Climate change, resource scarcity, and shifting gender roles were identified as new drivers of local conflict and opportunities for innovation.
4. Regional Organizations and the Silencing the Guns Agenda
   This session addressed the institutional strengths and weaknesses of the AU, IGAD, and other sub-regional bodies. Panelists stressed that the AU’s effectiveness is limited by the political will of its member states. There was a call for moving beyond norm-setting towards enforcement and implementation. Practical recommendations included enhancing civic education, expanding the “Silencing the Guns” framework to vulnerable populations, and increasing coordination among regional blocs.

Key Takeaways

• Establish inclusive governance and address structural inequalities in the Horn of Africa. Political transitions require sustained and inclusive engagement, not episodic reforms.
• Ethnic and identity-based contestations must be addressed through national dialogue and constitutional reform.
• Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), grassroots actors, and youth networks must be integrated into formal peace mechanisms.
• The AU and IGAD need to strengthen implementation, not just develop policy.
• External interventions should be aligned with African-led priorities and avoid entrenching power imbalances.

From Dialogue to Action

The policy dialogue highlighted the urgency of reimagining governance and regional cooperation. Scholars advocated for a shift toward transnational frameworks and knowledge-based policymaking. Reflections underscored systemic challenges, including a lack of legitimacy, the militarization of the state, elite domination, and fragmented civic spaces.

There was consensus on the need to anchor peace in grassroots realities, use localized approaches to Silencing the Guns, and foster long-term regional integration. The importance of pragmatic institutional design, civic education, and inclusive data frameworks was repeatedly underscored.

The APN and Next Gen program is funded by Carnegie Corporation of New York.