The availability of electronic health records (EHR) has opened opportunities to supplement increasingly expensive and difficult to carry out randomized controlled trials (RCT) with evidence from readily available real world data. In this article, we use EHR data to construct synthetic control arms for treatment-only single arm trials. We propose a novel nonparametric Bayesian common atoms mixture model that allows us to find equivalent population strata in the EHR and the treatment arm and then resample the EHR data to create equivalent patient populations under both the single arm trial and the resampled EHR. Resampling is implemented via a density-free importance sampling scheme. Using the synthetic control arm, inference for the treatment effect can then be carried out using any method available for RCTs. Alternatively the proposed nonparametric Bayesian model allows straightforward model-based inference. In simulation experiments, the proposed method exhibits higher power than alternative methods in detecting treatment effects, specifically for nonlinear response functions. We apply the method to supplement single arm treatment-only glioblastoma studies with a synthetic control arm based on historical trials. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Myths of “Man the Hunter” and male biological superiority persist in interpretations and reconstructions of human evolution. Although there are uncontroversial average biological differences between females and males, the potential physiological advantages females may possess are less well-known and less well-studied. Here we review and present emerging physiological evidence that females may be metabolically better suited for endurance activities such as running, which could have profound implications for understanding subsistence capabilities and patterns in the past. We discuss the role of estrogen and adiponectin as respective key modulators of glucose and fat metabolism, both of which are critical fuels during long endurance activities. We also discuss how differences in overall body composition, muscle fiber composition, the metabolic cost of load carrying, and self-pacing may provide females with increased endurance capacities. Highlighting these potential advantages provides a physiological framework that complements existing archaeological (Lacy and Ocobock, this issue) and cultural work reassessing female endurance and hunting capabilities as well as the sexual division of labor. Such a holistic approach is critical to amending our current understanding of hu(wo)man evolution.