Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes, whose investigation often directly relies on simulations of precipitation from climate models. Here, we use a different strategy to investigate how future changes in spatial extents of precipitation extremes differ across climate zones and seasons in two river basins (Danube and Mississippi). We rely on observed precipitation extremes while exploiting a physics-based average-temperature covariate, enabling us to project future precipitation extents based on projected temperatures. We include the covariate into newly developed time-varying r-Pareto processes using suitably chosen spatial risk functionals r. This model captures temporal non-stationarity in the spatial dependence structure of precipitation extremes by linking it to the temperature covariate, derived from reanalysis data (ERA5-Land) for model calibration and from bias-corrected climate simulations (CMIP6) for projections. Our results show an increasing trend in the margins, with both significantly positive or negative trend coefficients depending on season and river (sub-)basin. During major rainy seasons, the significant trends indicate that future spatial extreme events will become relatively more intense and localized in several sub-basins. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Friendships between low-wage migrant workers can provide mutual support and information, as well as generate suspicion, jealousy, and competition. Indonesian and Filipino migrant women in Chile maintain counter-intuitive social relations where, despite never fully resolving ongoing conflicts over money, men, or reputations, women continue to attend to new emergencies and provide significant economic, practical, or emotional support to one another. Such friendships take on a hostile quality, where women can be aggressive or antagonistic while caring for the other's needs. These friendships that endure despite open wounds raise questions about the nature of care and obligation in contemporary urban nonkin relations. They highlight how women affectively navigate the potential harm of friendship to survive structural and everyday violence from other social relations. In decentering the role of positive affect in analyses of friendship and caring relations, I propose that a focus on such “ambivalent relationality” can present us with more realistic, although perhaps unromantic, models of how to care for one another in an imperfect world.