I study the economic value of obesity—a status symbol in poor countries associated with raised health risks. Randomizing decision-makers in Kampala, Uganda to view weight-manipulated portraits, I find that obesity is perceived as a reliable signal of wealth but not of beauty or health. Thus, leveraging a real-stakes experiment involving professional loan officers, I show that being obese facilitates access to credit. The large obesity premium, comparable to raising borrower self-reported earnings by over 60 percent, is driven by asymmetric information and drops significantly when providing more financial information. Notably, obesity benefits and wealth-signaling value are commonly overestimated, suggesting market distortions.

How do international sports events shape repression in authoritarian host countries? International tournaments promise unique gains in political prestige through global media attention. However, autocrats must fear that foreign journalists will unmask their wrongdoings. We argue that autocracies solve this dilemma by strategically adjusting repression according to the spatial-temporal presence of international media. Using original, highly disaggregated data on the 1978 World Cup, we demonstrate that the Argentine host government largely refrained from repression during the tournament but preemptively cleared the streets beforehand. These adjustments specifically occurred around hotels reserved for foreign journalists. Additional tests demonstrate that (1) before the tournament, repression turned increasingly covert, (2) during the tournament, targeting patterns mirrored the working shifts of foreign journalists, (3) after the tournament, regime violence again spiked in locations where international media had been present. Together, the article highlights the human costs of megaevents, contradicting the common whitewashing rhetoric of functionaries.

The connection between racially prejudiced policing and politics has a long history in the United States. In the current period, police organizations have displayed unprecedented support for Republican presidential candidates, and both have organized against social movements focused on addressing racial disparities in police contact. Yet despite strong connections between law enforcement and party politics, we know almost nothing about the relationship between partisan identity and the behavior of police officers. Using millions of traffic stop records from the Florida Highway Patrol and linked voter records, the present study shows that White Republican officers exhibit a larger racial disparity than White Democratic officers in their propensity to search motorists whom they have stopped. This result is robust to an array of alternative empirical tests and holds across varying sociodemographic contexts. I also find that both White Republican and White Democratic officers grew more biased between 2012 and 2020, a period characterized by the rise of the Black Lives Matter movement and the election of Donald Trump.

Most causal inference methods consider counterfactual variables under interventions that set the exposure to a fixed value. With continuous or multi-valued treatments or exposures, such counterfactuals may be of little practical interest because no feasible intervention can be implemented that would bring them about. Longitudinal modified treatment policies (LMTPs) are a recently developed nonparametric alternative that yield effects of immediate practical relevance with an interpretation in terms of meaningful interventions such as reducing or increasing the exposure by a given amount. LMTPs also have the advantage that they can be designed to satisfy the positivity assumption required for causal inference. We present a novel sequential regression formula that identifies the LMTP causal effect, study properties of the LMTP statistical estimand such as the efficient influence function and the efficiency bound, and propose four different estimators. Two of our estimators are efficient, and one is sequentially doubly robust in the sense that it is consistent if, for each time point, either an outcome regression or a treatment mechanism is consistently estimated. We perform numerical studies of the estimators, and present the results of our motivating study on hypoxemia and mortality in intubated Intensive Care Unit (ICU) patients. Software implementing our methods is provided in the form of the open source R package lmtp freely available on GitHub and CRAN.

Working at the intersection of exchange theory, urban anthropology, and ethnic and racial studies, this article offers an original perspective on the role of local patrons’ exchange networks in constructing place belonging during racial urban change. Inspired by a middle-ground approach to reciprocity, embodying both solidarity and distrust within the same ethnic community, and manifested in an interracial context, the article proposes the integrative term of strategic generosity. The concept includes two interlinked layers: the combination of altruism and self-interest in local patrons’ exchange practices within the same ethnic community, and patron exchange circles as mechanisms for the exclusion of racial Others reproducing boundaries between social groups. The case study is HaTikva—a lower-income neighborhood in downtown Tel Aviv originally inhabited almost exclusively by disadvantaged Mizrahi Jews (of Middle Eastern origin), and more recently transformed by the arrival of African asylum seekers. Based on fieldwork conducted from 2010 to 2013 among long-term Mizrahi residents, I argue that although local Mizrahi patrons use parental metaphors to describe their unconditioned giving to their own community; in fact, altruist and instrumental actions intermingle in the management of their reciprocity network. The exchange networks help vulnerable agents and enhance Mizrahi place attachment, but at the same time buttress the patrons’ own standing in the neighborhood and exclude the non-Jewish African Others. These findings are discussed in the context of everyday life in a marginalized ethnic community as well as a barrier to integration and the concept's contribution to exchange theory more broadly.

This article examines the Hong Kong–China maritime border since 1949, when the establishment of the People’s Republic of China and the onset of the Cold War turned the 1898 imperial boundary into an ideological line, one that nonetheless remained porous to ties of trade and kinship. It focuses on the oyster-producing communities in the tidelands of the Pearl River estuary, showing how oystermen—some of them also refugees—faced security threats exacerbated by the Cultural Revolution while they also leveraged the borderland’s opportunities. The oyster industries are a case study in two forms of agricultural production: traditional land and labor relations on the Hong Kong coast, and collective agriculture in China’s socialist period, followed by decollectivization in the reform era. By the end of the Mao years in 1976, China’s oyster industry well exceeded that of Hong Kong’s, but both systems were vulnerable to industrial pollution. In the reform era and after, China’s oystermen built upon persistent networks to navigate their position between Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and the Pearl River Delta. The prosperity of the China oysterman, rather than the Hong Kong refugee, illustrates the inversion of the border’s valence from a colonial past to a postsocialist future.

Contact theory is a well-established paradigm for improving intergroup relations—positive contact between groups promotes social harmony by increasing intergroup warmth. A longstanding critique of this paradigm is that contact does not necessarily promote social equality. Recent research has blunted this critique by showing that contact correlates positively with political solidarity expressed by dominant groups toward subordinate groups, thus furthering the goal of equality. However, this research precludes causal inferences because it conflates within-person change (people with higher contact subsequently expressing higher solidarity) and between-person stability (people with chronically high contact simultaneously expressing chronically high solidarity, and vice versa). We addressed this problem in a highly powered, seven-wave study using two different measures of contact and three different measures of political solidarity (N = 22,646). Results showed no within-person change over a 1-year period (inconsistent with a causal effect), but significant between-person stability (consistent with third-variable explanations). This reinforces doubts about contact as a strategy for promoting equality.