Article/Essay

The Demographic Benefit of International Migration: Hypothesis and Application to Middle Eastern and North African Contextsfar

Fargues, Phillippe
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Description

This paper argues that international migration may have resulted in a smaller world population than in the non migration scenario. The author claims that most of recent migration has been from high to low birth-rate countries, and since migrants typically adopt and send back ideas that prevail in host countries, they are potential agents of the diffusion of demographic modernity to their country of origin. To explore this issue, the author analyses time series data from three major emigration countries: Morocco and Turkey (where emigration is bound for the West), and Egypt (where emigration is bound for the Gulf). The host countries are either more (the West) or less (the Gulf) advanced in their demographic transition than the home country. The analysis article finds that time-series data on birth rates and migrant remittances (reflecting the intensity of the relationship between the emigrants and their home country) are strongly correlated. The Correlation is negative for Morocco and Turkey, and positive for Egypt. This suggests that Moroccan and Turkish emigration has been accompanied by a fundamental change of attitudes regarding marriage and birth, while the opposite holds for Egyptian migration. The broader conclusions from this paper are that migration may have caused a relaxation of demographic pressures for the world as a whole. In addition, if it turns out that emigrants are conveyors of new ideas in this area, the author hypothesises that the same may apply to a wider range of civil behavior.

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